Asterès publishes a second study commissioned by Cigref. Focusing on the capture of economic value linked to technological dependencies, it presents a unique and unequivocal assessment. The rising costs of cloud and software services are no longer merely a budgetary challenge; they are becoming a systemic threat to the European economy.
In 2025, Asterès estimated that European organisations were spending around €400 billion a year on cloud and software services. The figure of €264 billion in annual purchases made by European organisations and benefiting the US economy reflected the direct loss of value to the European economy. This estimate corresponds to the value added created across the Atlantic (80% of value added) by US players (83% of expenditure).
This study is available in French (version française)
An unsustainable inflation rate that is not in line with the real value
Businesses and public authorities are facing a rapid increase in prices: +8.7% per year over the last three years, with a forecast of +12% per year over the next five years.
- The vast majority of Chief Digital Officers consider increases in cloud and software costs to be unjustified, and 71% of them believe this trajectory is unsustainable by 2030.
- Despite the extra costs being justified by AI features and the associated tools—which are imposed in nearly 40% of cases – the productivity gains generated remain theoretical for the vast majority of respondents.
A crowding-out effect that weakens the European ecosystem
The study reveals a vicious circle that threatens future production and innovation capabilities: to absorb these additional costs, organisations are prioritising reducing their other digital expenditure (47% of respondents) or increasing their overall digital budget (33%). Local digital services firms, recruitment within Europe, R&D and productive investments are therefore being used as adjustment variables. By 2030, the funding requirement quantified by the Draghi report is directly compromised by this loss of value:
- For organisations, the rise in expenditure on cloud-based software services would represent an additional cost of €140 billion per year on average, of which €93 billion would leave the European economy permanently.
- For the European economy, the cost of this inflation would amount to €205 billion in turnover, which could potentially be twice the impact of the oil shock in the Strait of Hormuz. This would result in a shortfall of €107 billion in value added, 0.6 percentage points of GDP and nearly 1.4 million jobs.
“€140 billion, taken each year from European companies in a vulnerable position, and partly deducted from our investment capacity: it’s almost like a tax in all but name”
Nicolas Bouzou, Director of the economic research firm Asterès
Mitigating impacts: three scenarios for 2030
Asterès identifies three scenarios that could mitigate this inflationary trajectory over the next five years. One of these involves leveraging European competitiveness: increasing the market share of local suppliers by 15% would help to preserve 120,000 jobs and €9 billion in added value per year.
“Cigref calls on public authorities, at both national and European level, firstly to assess the predictable consequences of the European Union’s technological dependencies in macroeconomic terms and, secondly, to take all necessary measures, with the requisite urgency, to establish an industrial roadmap that will enable us to avoid the most adverse scenarios.”
Henri d’Agrain, General Delegate of Cigref
We would like to thank the Asterès teams for this research and macroeconomic analysis. We would also like to thank Beltug, CIO Platform Nederland and VOICE for their collaboration in the study, and the consultancy firm Elée for their discussions, which informed the study.
