Asterès publishes a second study commissioned by the Cigref. Focusing on the capture of economic value linked to technological dependencies, it presents an original and unequivocal assessment. The rising costs of cloud and software services are no longer merely a budgetary challenge; they are becoming a systemic threat to the European economy.
In a previous study, published in April 2025 for Cigref, Asterès estimated the total expenditure of European organisations on cloud and software services for the year 2024 at around €400 billion per year, of which €330 billion (or 83%) was spent solely on American companies. The study also highlighted that 80% of this value was generated in the United States. This means that nearly €264 billion (mainly the figure quoted by commentators) contributes to the US economy each year, thereby supporting nearly 1.9 million direct, indirect and induced jobs.
For this second study, which focuses on the impact of current and projected price rises over the next five years for cloud and software services, Asterès has used the estimated total expenditure in Europe within this market (€400 billion per year) as the basis for its calculations.
Key findings from this study:
- The observed increase in cloud software prices over the last three years was +8.7%; the projected increase for the next five years is +12%.
- Smoothed over five years, inflation averages €140 billion per year, assuming constant spending volumes and no volatility in AI service prices. Of these annual additional costs, €93 billion would leave the continent permanently rather than funding the local economy, whilst this amount is of the same order of magnitude as the annual digital budget required to implement the Draghi Plan.
- The justification of these additional costs through new AI functionalities, imposed in 40% of cases, does not reflect the reality of productivity gains, which nearly 60% of respondents consider to be theoretical in the short and medium term.
- Price increases (€140 billion) are mainly compensated within organisations by a budget increase or a reallocation of resources (€108 billion), with a negative impact on procurement from digital services companies (DSCs), recruitment, R&D and productive investments.
- The shift of more than 50% of capital expenditure (Capex) to operating expenditure (OpEx) and the rapid drive towards financial pooling to support the development of AI infrastructure is likened to a ‘tax’ by the consultancy firm Asterès.
- If nothing is done and the situation remains unchanged, the additional costs could represent an annual shortfall of €65 billion for the EU economy, due to a crowding-out effect and a vicious circle that directly weighs on European competitiveness.
- In total, the net loss in turnover (€205 billion per year) would be equivalent to the impact of two oil shocks similar to that of the Strait of Hormuz or the EU’s annual budget.
- A reallocation of 15% of extra-European expenditure towards regional players would prevent a shortfall of around 120,000 jobs and €9 billion in added value per year.
This study is available in French (version française)
An unsustainable inflation rate that is not in line with the real value
Businesses and public authorities are facing a rapid increase in prices: +8.7% per year over the last three years, with a forecast of +12% per year over the next five years.
- The vast majority of Chief Digital Officers consider increases in cloud and software costs to be unjustified, and 71% of them believe this trajectory is unsustainable by 2030.
- Despite the extra costs being justified by AI features and the associated tools—which are imposed in nearly 40% of cases – the productivity gains generated remain theoretical for the vast majority of respondents.
A crowding-out effect that weakens the European ecosystem
The study reveals a vicious circle that threatens future production and innovation capabilities: to absorb these additional costs, organisations are prioritising reducing their other digital expenditure (47% of respondents) or increasing their overall digital budget (33%). Local digital services firms, recruitment within Europe, R&D and productive investments are therefore being used as adjustment variables. By 2030, the funding requirement quantified by the Draghi report is directly compromised by this loss of value:
- For organisations, the rise in expenditure on cloud-based software services would represent an additional cost of €140 billion per year on average, of which €93 billion would leave the European economy permanently.
- For the European economy, the cost of this inflation would amount to €205 billion in turnover, which could potentially be twice the impact of the oil shock in the Strait of Hormuz. This would result in a shortfall of €107 billion in value added, 0.6 percentage points of GDP and nearly 1.4 million jobs.
“€140 billion, taken each year from European companies in a vulnerable position, and partly deducted from our investment capacity: it’s almost like a tax in all but name”
Nicolas Bouzou, Director of the economic research firm Asterès
Mitigating impacts: three scenarios for 2030
Asterès identifies three scenarios that could mitigate this inflationary trajectory over the next five years. One of these involves leveraging European competitiveness: increasing the market share of local suppliers by 15% would help to preserve 120,000 jobs and €9 billion in added value per year.
“Cigref calls on public authorities, at both national and European level, firstly to assess the predictable consequences of the European Union’s technological dependencies in macroeconomic terms and, secondly, to take all necessary measures, with the requisite urgency, to establish an industrial roadmap that will enable us to avoid the most adverse scenarios.”
Henri d’Agrain, General Delegate of Cigref
We would like to thank the Asterès teams for this research and macroeconomic analysis. We would also like to thank Beltug, CIO Platform Nederland and VOICE for their collaboration in the study, and the consultancy firm Elée for their discussions, which informed the study.
